It's Friday again. It's raining. Again. That would seem to provide evidence of the existance of the rainy season then. It also means that Ayus' family BBQ may have to be held under canvas.

I've been watching the price of oil this week as it made a brave attempt to lurch towards the $50 a barrel mark before falling back. What has struck me is how little effect events outside of the financial world now have upon it.

A few short months ago, political unrest, a pipeline explosion or a sudden cold snap would have the price of oil going into an almost vertical trajectory. Now it seems that those who make the markets no longer consider these events important. One wonders if they will maintain this stance once the recession is over. Doubtful I think.

The oil patch seems to be jogging along, and appears to have adapted to our new reality both well, and quickly. The initial confusion amongst the players shows signs of clearing, and a realisation that a path towards suicidal day rates may not have to be beaten. Dare I say it, but some could be thought to be bullish on even the short term prospects.

News this week of more vessel cancellations. Excessive delays being reported as the culprits. One has to wonder how many more will follow! Whilst events such as these could provide relief to some beleagured owners and their banks, the bad news has to end up in somebodies lap. In this case probably the yards and their banks. (These banks get everywhere don't they). Could this be where the first serious signs of stress begin? How many undelivered new builds can the yards absorb before problems arise? How many of these orphans can find new homes at such short notice when the banks (there they are again) aren't able to lend? Could shipyards be the next group to go to governments asking for assistance? Well, if it's good enough for GM, Ford et al, why not? The fundamentals are the same, employers of large numbers of people, extended clusters of suppliers, mostly export driven. Only the fragmentation of the players, and hence the inability to make a unified approach differentiates them from the auto industry.

My thanks go to Stephen Carson for the following images.

The first vessel is the GlomarIII circa 1968, the other being the new build Dhirubhai Deepwater KG1. No prizes for spotting the difference!! But, if ever there was a need for justification for increased day rates then surely these two pictures illustrate it as well as any.